Rouying Tang
4/4/2020
Introduction:
Research Question:
Where does the City of Philadelphia have the larger potential risks of the transmission of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic and how is each Zip zones’ situation based on the data of 4/4/2020?
Rationale:
Recently, the COVID-19 Pandemic is spreading globally, and the city of Philadelphia also faces this challenge. The World Health Organization states that “according to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes (World Health Organization)”. Currently, most schools, religious sites, libraries, parks, etc. have been closed, and many people work at home. But people still need to seek necessary medical services, and people who do not own a car have to rely on public transportation. The areas near those gathering locations (eg. hospitals, major subway stations, regional rail stations) will become hazardous to spread the disease quickly. The Case density (disease cases by the number of people per area (population density)) indicates the level of seriousness of the situation. When the case number is constant, the population density is smaller (the area is larger and the population is smaller), the seriousness is lower. This project intends to locate and rank the areas facing higher risks of transmission of the virus.
Data and Citation Sources:
• The data of “Positive COVID-19 cases by ZIP” is acquired from the website of The City of Philadelphia, the Web page of COVID-19 test results in Philadelphia on 4/4/2020. The link: https://www.phila.gov/programs/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/the-citys-response/monitoring-and-testing/.
• The data of the “SEPTAGISHighspeedStations_201207”, the “SEPTA Regional Rail Stations 2016 – Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority”; “Philadelphia Health – Health Centers 2016 – City of Philadelphia.shp”, “Philadelphia Health – Hospital 2016 – City of Philadelphia.shp”; “PhillyStreets_Zipcodes_Poly.shp” is acquired from the website of The Pennsylvania Geospatial Clearinghouse (PASDA) on 4/1/2020. The link: https://www.pasda.psu.edu/.
• The population of Philadelphia by Zip is derived from The United States Census Bureau, web page “ACS Demographic housing estimates” on 4/1/2020. The link: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=19121&g=8600000US19121&tid=ACSDP5Y2018.DP05.
I calculated the case density based on the above data.
World Health Organization. (2020). Modes of transmission of the virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations: scientific brief, 29 March 2020. World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331616. License: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO
Results:
The map “The Gathering Locations and the Zip Zones Ranked by the Case Density in Philadelphia on 4/4”:
The map “The Locations for Medical Services and the Zip Zones Ranked by the Case Density in Philadelphia on 4/4”:
The map “The Locations for Major Public Transportation and the Zip Zones Ranked by the Case Density in Philadelphia on 4/4”:
The map “The Zip Zones Ranked by the Case Density in Philadelphia on 4/4”:
The map “The Zip Zones Ranked by the Case Density in Philadelphia on 4/4”:
Discussion and Limitation:
Separating the factors of population and area in different maps may help for a deeper analysis, but the population density is a good indicator that includes both factors together. Thus, I adopted the population density for analysis.
The spatial data of supermarkets and demographic transition in each location is not available. So, the factor regarding grocery shopping, which is critical to maintaining daily supply is omitted, and the real-time population density is not available.
Areas work best at smaller area data like census tract, but the disease cases data is based on Zone areas, that is why I accept the data of Zone areas.
Less than one percent of the population is tested for the disease. The sample is relatively small, but the only data accessible.
Conclusion
The gathering locations are focusing on the Northern West, low Northern East, middle and low South.
The locations for medical services are focusing around the North, middle, South, and Southern West.
The locations for major public transportation concentrate along the Broad and market street, Northern East and West.
The case density is large around the Northern East, West, and lower South, which indicates that those areas have higher risks with larger positive cases over corresponding population density. Middle Northern and Southern Philadelphia have low case density, which indicates that this area has a less severe situation considering the factor of population density.
The gathering locations and the high-risk zip zones should be avoided without necessary excuses.